Cuba plans to continue its gradual economic recovery in 2022 and expects GDP growth of 4 per cent.

The Cuban economy plans to continue its gradual recovery in 2022 and expects to achieve GDP growth, at constant prices, in the region of four per cent, for which control of the pandemic is key, Alejandro Gil Fernández, deputy prime minister and minister of Economy and Planning, told deputies gathered at the Havana Convention Palace on Tuesday.
Speaking at the Eighth Ordinary Period of Sessions of the National Assembly of People’s Power, in its ninth legislature, the minister outlined the estimated behaviour of the economy during 2021 and the plans for 2022.

According to Gil Fernández, with the increase forecast for the coming year, it will be possible to overcome the falls experienced in 2019 and 2020, a figure calculated after estimating an approximate growth of 2% of GDP for 2021.
The minister recalled that, although the current year did not reach the target of 6% GDP growth, it does break the negative trend of the last two 24 months, in a period of tensions due to the effects of the pandemic and the intensification of the blockade, “which continues to exert pressure and act to cut off the supply channels of foreign currency and resources that the country demands”.

Added to this is the increase in import prices and freight rates and the effects on international maritime transport logistics chains, which have prevented the timely availability of resources.

Agriculture and manufacturing are two of the sectors most affected during this period of economic contraction.

As negative aspects on which it is necessary to focus attention, the Minister of Economy and Planning mentioned the more than 500 state enterprises with losses, the partial dollarisation of the economy in the relations between entities and between entities and the non-state sector, and the deviations in the design of the Ordering Task.

Certainly, he clarified, there were fewer loss-making enterprises in the past, but this was due to the old exchange rate of 1 CUP x 1 USD.

He explained that the expected growth for next year is based on more domestic production.

“The task is to grow without more imports, increasing efficiency,” he said, and stressed that to achieve this, the role of the socialist state enterprise and the participation of new actors is fundamental.

On priorities for 2022, he announced that corrections will be made in terms of relations between the state and non-state sectors, as well as in e-commerce.

The Minister of Economy and Planning mentioned the objectives prioritised for 2022:

To advance, as part of the gradual revival of the economy, in the process of macroeconomic stabilisation; in the recovery of the role of the Cuban peso as the centre of the financial system and in the rationality of the prices of products and services, prioritising those that are most sensitive for the population.
Stabilise the national electro-energy system.

Monitor the impact of the measures implemented for the prioritised attention to persons, households and communities in vulnerable situations and ensure their sustainability.

Follow up on the process of decentralisation of competencies of municipalities, as well as the strengthening of local productive systems, productive chains and territorial development.

Attend to the transformations in the socialist state enterprise, evaluating their impact on efficiency and increased productivity. In particular, with regard to the results achieved in the application of the new wage organisation, in the functioning of micro, small and medium state enterprises and the structural transformation underway.
Continue to monitor the improvement of domestic trade, combining the different forms of ownership and management, and the implementation of measures to increase the state’s offerings in Cuban pesos.

Ensure expenditure control at all levels of the budget, boosting savings and, in turn, securing the revenues foreseen in the state budget.

Ensure the efficiency of the investment process.